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Published Articles

2020, "A Little Bit of Cheap Talk is a Dangerous Thing: States Can Communicate Intentions Persuasively and Raise the Risk of War.," The Journal of Politics, forthcoming. (conference paper draft)

2018 "Media Technology, Covert Action, and the Politics of Exposure,'' with Michael Poznansky. Journal of Peace Research. Vol 55, issue 3. DOI:

2018 "Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion," with Michael K. Miller and Dorothy Ohl.  Journal of Conflict Resolution. vol. 62, issue 2. DOI:

Book Project: A motives-based theory of power transitions.

For more information about my book project please contact me! 

Under Review

"Grand Bargains: A theory of strategic offers during power transitions" 

"The Secret Failure of Nuclear Containment" 

Other Manuscripts

"Explaining cooperation, credible costless communication, coordination and delayed competition
under the reassurance dilemma." 

"National Security Whistleblowers," with William Spaniel and Michael Poznansky.      (War on the Rocks)

Ongoing / New Projects 

"The Diplomatic Network of Global Elites,'' with Eric Dunford.  Presented at ISA 2016. ​

"Testing Theories of Bias in National Security Decision Making: a simulation approach," with Robert Schub. Presented at APSA 2018.

"Pants on Fire: national security abuse in the digital age," with Michael Poznansky. Presented at Peace Science 2017.

"Does Weapons Availability Cause Conflict? A Natural Experiment From Peru," with Barnett Koven.