Contact by email: michael.frederick.joseph@gmail.com

Published Articles

2020, "A Little Bit of Cheap Talk is a Dangerous Thing: States Can Communicate Intentions Persuasively and Raise the Risk of War.," The Journal of Politics, forthcoming. (conference paper draft)

2018 "Media Technology, Covert Action, and the Politics of Exposure,'' with Michael Poznansky. Journal of Peace Research. Vol 55, issue 3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317731508

2018 "Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion," with Michael K. Miller and Dorothy Ohl.  Journal of Conflict Resolution. vol. 62, issue 2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716649232

Book Project: A motives-based theory of power transitions.

My job market paper summarizes my book's theory and some evidence (click here)

To see evidence that supports my theory, check out the following draft chapters:  

Chapter 4: Elite Survey Experiment (click to read)

Chapter 5: Case Study & Analytical Narrative of Anglo-Soviet Diplomacy (1940-1946) (click to read)

Chapter 6: Medium-N Analysis of Original Dataset of Great Power Power Transitions, 1850-2010 (click to read)

Under Review

"Grand Bargains: A theory of strategic offers during power transitions" (click to read)

"The Secret Failure of Nuclear Containment" (click to read)

Other Manuscripts

"Explaining cooperation, credible costless communication, coordination and delayed competition
under the reassurance dilemma." (click to read)

"National Security Whistleblowers," with William Spaniel and Michael Poznansky. (click to read)     (War on the Rocks)

Ongoing / New Projects 

"The Diplomatic Network of Global Elites,'' with Eric Dunford.  Presented at ISA 2016. ​


"Testing Theories of Bias in National Security Decision Making: a simulation approach," with Robert Schub. Presented at APSA 2018.

"Pants on Fire: national security abuse in the digital age," with Michael Poznansky. Presented at Peace Science 2017.

"Does Weapons Availability Cause Conflict? A Natural Experiment From Peru," with Barnett Koven.