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Published Articles

2024, "Secret Innovation," with Michael Poznansky, International Organization (Conditionally Accepted)

2023, "When Do Leader Attributes Matter? Evidence from the President's Daily Brief," with Michael Goldfien and Daniel Krcmaric. Conflict Management and Peace Science.

2023, "Domestic Sources of International Reputation," with Michael Goldfien and Roseanne  McManus.  American Political Science Review, 117 (2) 

2023: "Do different coercive strategies help or hurt deterrence success? International Studies Quarterly, 67 (2)

2023: Perceptions of Leadership importance: Evidence from the President's Daily Brief, with Michael Goldfien, Security Studies, 32 (2)

2022, "Shooting the Messenger: The Challenge of National Security Whistleblowing,"  with Michael Poznansky and William Spaniel. The Journal of Politics, 84, (2). Click here to download.  (Covered in War on the Rocks)

2021, "A Little Bit of Cheap Talk is a Dangerous Thing: States Can Communicate Intentions Persuasively and Raise the Risk of War.," The Journal of Politics, (83) 1.

AwardBest paper, Formal Theory Section, American Political Science Association

Book Manuscript: Great Power Politics: A rationalist theory of historical and cultural context.

Revised and resubmitted to Cornell University Press (CSAS).


Click Here For Book Proposal

Under Review

Rapid power shifts and peace: A theory of grand bargains (R & R, BJPOLS) (download)

Generalizing Experimental Results in International Relations: using sensitivity analysis to quantify uncertainty. (with Melody Huang)

    The Domestic Sources of International Trust (w/ Michael Goldfien, Roseanne McManus)

Sharable Working Papers 

Unattributable Coercion.   (download)

Cover Stories  (download)

Re-thinking U.S. Intelligence Estimates of China's Strategic Intentions: a new rationalist baseline.  (download)

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