Published Articles
2023, "Domestic Sources of International Reputation," with Michael Goldfien and Roseanne McManus. American Political Science Review, 117 (2)
2023: "Do different coercive strategies help or hurt deterrence success?" International Studies Quarterly, 67 (2)
2023: Perceptions of Leadership importance: Evidence from the President's Daily Brief, with Michael Goldfien, Security Studies, 32 (2)
2022, "Shooting the Messenger: The Challenge of National Security Whistleblowing," with Michael Poznansky and William Spaniel. The Journal of Politics, 84, (2). Click here to download. (Covered in War on the Rocks)
2021, "A Little Bit of Cheap Talk is a Dangerous Thing: States Can Communicate Intentions Persuasively and Raise the Risk of War.," The Journal of Politics, (83) 1.
Award: Best paper, Formal Theory Section, American Political Science Association
Book Project: Great Power Politics: A rationalist theory of historical and cultural context.
Click here for article that summarizes parts of China evidence:
Re-evaluating U.S. Intelligence Estimates of China's Strategic Intentions: a new rationalist baseline.
Under Review
When Do Leader Attributes Matter? Evidence from the President's Daily Brief, with Michael Goldfien and Daniel Krcmaric (Accepted, CMPS)
Secret Innovation, with Michael Poznansky (R&R, IO) (download)
Rapid power shifts and peace: A theory of grand bargains (download)
Unattributable Coercion. (download)
Innovation, Productive Power and War (download)
Core values, multi-dimensional salience, and trust (download)
Sharable Working Papers
Cover Stories (download)
Re-thinking U.S. Intelligence Estimates of China's Strategic Intentions: a new rationalist baseline. (download)