Published Articles

2020, "A Little Bit of Cheap Talk is a Dangerous Thing: States Can Communicate Intentions Persuasively and Raise the Risk of War.," The Journal of Politics, online first. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/709145

2018 "Media Technology, Covert Action, and the Politics of Exposure,'' with Michael Poznansky. Journal of Peace Research. Vol 55, issue 3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317731508

2018 "Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion," with Michael K. Miller and Dorothy Ohl.  Journal of Conflict Resolution. vol. 62, issue 2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716649232

Book Project: A motives-based theory of power transitions.

For more information about my book project please contact me! 

Under Review

Rapid power shifts and peace: A theory of grand bargains.

Peacetime policy-making, containment and long-term nuclear proliferation trends

National Security Whistleblowers, with William Spaniel and Michael Poznansky.      (War on the Rocks)

When Do Leader Attributes Matter? Evidence from the President's Daily Brief, with Michael Goldfien and Daniel Krcmaric

Leadership importance, institutional constraints and conflict: A document-based approach, with Michael Goldfien

Other Manuscripts

"Explaining cooperation, credible costless communication, coordination and delayed competition
under the reassurance dilemma." 

Ongoing / New Projects 

"The Diplomatic Network of Global Elites,'' with Eric Dunford.  Presented at ISA 2016. ​


"Testing Theories of Bias in National Security Decision Making: a simulation approach," with Robert Schub. Presented at APSA 2018.

 

Contact by email: michael.frederick.joseph@gmail.com