Contact by email: michael.frederick.joseph@gmail.com

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My job market paper summarizes parts of my manuscript (click here).

For the online appendix (Appendix B: model robustness) click here. 

To see evidence that supports my theory, check out the following draft chapters:  

Chapter 4: Elite Survey Experiment (click to read)

Chapter 5: Case Study & Analytical Narrative of Anglo-Soviet Diplomacy (1940-1946) (click to read)

Chapter 6: Medium-N Analysis of Original Dataset of Great Power Power Transitions, 1850-2010 (click to read)

I have also written an article-length manuscript based on the formal model in my book project. The article provides a more general description of the matrix game I developed with broad applications to problems of re-assurance (click to read).